【行情分析】弱势收官 无取向硅钢“放低姿态”迎接2017

经过了将近半年的涨势之后，在2017年来临之际，无取向硅钢市场似乎有些疲倦了。中联钢数据显示，12月份上海市场50WW800价格涨幅高达1200元/吨，而12月16日至30日同牌号资源价格涨幅为200元/吨。特别是年末最后一周，终端需求清淡，贸易商出货积极性高，市场不乏出现让利出货情况。

<p style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;\”> 

<p style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;\”>1、终端采购节奏放缓，需求减弱

<p style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;\”> 

<p style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;\”>据中联钢了解，由于今年春节时间提前，原料成本居高不下，加之环保政策影响，不少中小用钢企业停产停工，提前放假。目前正常生产的企业，前期也基本完成备货，市场采购积极性减弱。

<p style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;\”> 

<p style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;\”>2、年底资金压力显现，商家让利出货

<p style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;\”> 

<p style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;\”>前期价格不断攀高的同时，成交不畅，市场信心减弱，贸易商为回笼资金，让利出货情况明显。前期价格的不断攀升使得市场整体信心十足，各贸易商手中仍有部分未售现货，而价格拉涨的同时，成交走弱，市场逐渐达到平衡态。前期价格的暴涨增加了市场风险，面对成交转弱的行情，价格上调缺乏支撑力，基于此市场普遍认为价格已至高点，节前很难继续拉涨。加之年末资金压力显现及风险转移需求，贸易商出货积极性增加，让利出货时有发生。

<p style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;\”> 

<p style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;\”>春节前市场供需两弱，货少仍是主基调

<p style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;\”> 

<p style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;\”>①由于钢厂订单中终端大户占多数，导致贸易商订货困难，市场流入资源有限。近期，随着需求减弱，市场库存缓慢提升，但货少仍是主要基调。

<p style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;\”>②2017年一月份全国无取向硅钢厂计划产量61.5万吨，环比减少0.5万吨。部分短流程钢厂由于春节放假安排及基料采购压力，整体供应略有减弱。

<p style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;\”>总体来看，2016年无取向硅钢在震荡中回暖，特别是下半年经历了加速提升阶段，跌了近五年的价格，半年时间涨上去了。临近年底，需求转弱，价格略有松动，无取向硅钢市场以弱势迎接2017，这给价格不断疯涨的市场注射一针镇静剂，让市场更理性客观的看待下游需求。

 

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